Sunday, September 27, 2009

Outmigration Hits Florida's "Field of Dreams"

According to Census reports, net outmigration from Florida amounted to 10,000 people in 2008. This was in marked contrast to an average net inmigration of about 200,000 people per year from 2001 to 2006. Furthermore, it was the first outmigration recorded since 1946.

The Census Bureau reports also reveal that Florida experienced a larger decline in income than any other state in 2008 when its income dropped 3.9%.

Florida's "Field of Dreams" residential building mentality of "build it, they will come" has been destroyed. A turnaround in real estate prices looks unlikely given the lack of available financing, declining incomes, and outmigration.

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Florida Real Estate Surplus Will Disappear First

The surplus of single family and multi-family homes is likely to disappear in Florida before the surpluses disappear in Arizona, Nevada, and California. The reasons for Florida’s surplus disappearing include weather and diplomacy.

Hurricanes are a fact of live in Florida and can be expected to destroy a number of residential dwellings during the next few years. Arizona, Nevada, and California cannot count on such forces of nature to alleviate their surpluses.

The real game changer in Florida, however, would be if the Obama Administration opened up trade with Cuba. If trade with Cuba became legal, there would be a huge influx of businesses and people into Florida especially in areas where the greatest residential surpluses exist.

Ending the Cuba embargo would also cause a surge in demand for office and warehouse space, which currently have high vacancy rates. Corporations wanting to do business in Cuba will beat a path to South Florida to be closer to the action and the ports of Canaveral, Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami.

Sunday, February 08, 2009

Florida Sinks Into Despair

The following article written by DAMIEN CAVE appeared in the New York Times on Sunday, February 8, 2009 and tragically reports the depths to which Florida residential real estate has fallen.
LEHIGH ACRES, Fla. — Desperation has moved into this once-middle-class exurb of Fort Myers, where hammers used to pound.
Its straight-ahead stare was hidden amid the chatter of 221 families waiting for free bread at Faith Lutheran Church on a recent Friday morning; and it appeared a block away a few days earlier, as laid-off construction workers in flannel shirts scavenged through trash bags at a home foreclosure, grabbing wires, CDs, anything that could be sold.
“I knew it was coming,” said Gloria Chilson, 56, the former owner of the house, as she watched strangers pick through her belongings. “You take what you can; you try not to care.”
Welcome to the American dream in high reverse. Lehigh Acres is one of countless sprawling exurbs that the housing boom drastically reshaped, and now the bust is testing whether the experience of shared struggle will pull people together or tear them apart.
The changes in these mostly unincorporated areas outside cities like Charlotte, N.C., Las Vegas and Sacramento have been swift and vivid. Their best economic times have been immediately followed by their worst, as they have generally been the last to crest and the first to crash.
In Lehigh Acres, homes are selling at 80 percent off their peak prices. Only two years after there were more jobs than people to work them, fast-food restaurants are laying people off or closing. Crime is up, school enrollment is down, and one in four residents received food stamps in December, nearly a fourfold increase since 2006.
President Obama is scheduled to visit Fort Myers on Tuesday to promote his economic stimulus plan. But residents here tend to view it as the equivalent of an herbal remedy — it can’t hurt but it probably won’t heal. Instead, in church groups and offices, people call for “industry” and repeat one telling question: “What do we want to be when we grow up?”
“That’s one of the things we struggle with: What is our identity?” said Joseph Whalen, 37, president of the Lehigh Acres Chamber of Commerce. “We don’t want to be the bedroom community of southwest Florida; we don’t want to be the foreclosure capital.”
A Legacy of the ’50s
Lehigh Acres, like much of Florida and many suburbs nationwide, was born with speculation in its DNA.
The area got its start in the 1950s when a Chicago pest control baron, Lee Ratner, and several partners bought thousands of acres of farmland and plotted about 100,000 lots. With Fort Myers, 15 miles to the west, developers left little room for schools, parks or even businesses.
What they sold was sun and quiet living.
“They used to bring 20 busloads a day,” said Bob Elliott, a former salesman for Mr. Ratner’s company who struck out on his own in 1982. “We had 300 customers, seven days a week.”
By 2000, the lots had been sold, but most stayed empty. Only about 30,000 people were living in an area roughly four times the size of Manhattan. The builders really started to arrive in 2004, setting up model homes on Lee Boulevard next to Mr. Elliott’s office with the faded wooden sign that said “$50 lots.”
Bill Spikowski, a city planning consultant in Fort Myers, said that because Lehigh Acres had so many parcels and few restrictions on what could be built, smaller companies battled for customers. From 2004 to the end of 2006, developers completed 13,183 units in Lehigh Acres — nearly doubling the total stock of 15,216 that existed in 2000, according to Lee County figures.
Residents remember the boom for its noise, with dump trucks lining the streets and power tools heard in nearly every neighborhood. Housing prices doubled, then tripled, and jobs were plentiful, nearly all of them tied to real estate.
Signs of trouble were ignored. “Sometimes houses would sell three or four times in a few months, and no one would move in,” Mr. Elliott said.
Then in 2007, it all went quiet. Houses stopped selling. Foreclosures multiplied. The median home price in the Fort Myers area dropped to $215,200 in December 2007, from a peak of $322,300 in December 2005. It had fallen to $106,900 two months ago.
Work disappeared with the profits. According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, Lee County lost a higher percentage of jobs (8.8 percent) from June 2007 to June 2008 than any other county in the nation. Unemployment in the county rose to 9.8 percent in November, from 3.5 percent in March 2007.
Lehigh Acres was particularly hard hit because it relied on construction. This was where the carpenters and exterminators of southwest Florida lived because it was more affordable or close to work. And by last spring, life as they knew it had come to an end.
The Downward Spiral
Trinkets for $1 were an early sign of trouble. Early last year, garage sales and estate auctions became more common in Lehigh Acres as families sold what they could to survive. No one seemed interested in buying whole houses, and foreclosures soon gave way to empty homes that became magnets for crime.
Thieves stole air conditioner parts for scrap. And on distant roads with only a few new homes and faded blue street signs from the ’50s — on Narcissus Boulevard, on Prospect Avenue — drug dealers moved in.
In 2007 and 2008, the Lee County Sheriff’s Department shut down more than 100 houses in Lehigh Acres where marijuana was being grown. In 2008, the police confiscated nearly 3,000 plants valued at nearly $7 million.
Last winter, Charlotte Rae Nicely, executive director of Lehigh Community Services, noticed something else. More people were going hungry. Demand was increasing at the food pantry she runs at a nondescript office park, with dozens of new faces appearing week after week, even as the population was declining.
Wondering what other social service agencies were experiencing, she decided to form a group that would coordinate assistance. It was the first sign that Lehigh Acres was fighting the recession in an organized way, and the group’s mission appeared in its name: Team Rescue.
The monthly meetings now include about a half-dozen churches, nonprofit groups, business owners and representatives from county government, including the sheriff’s office.
Discussion at one recent gathering centered on the host of troubles that follow unemployment — issues that until recently had rarely been seen in new American suburbs. Hunger was chief among them.
The organizations offering food in Lehigh Acres have seen demand increase by as much as 75 percent in the last year. And the people being served are no longer just the chronic poor.
The line at Faith Lutheran included a mix of ages, races and former income levels.
Luis Oquendo, 38, said he had been showing up for his weekly bread allotment since last fall, after full-time construction work disappeared.
Fred Csifortos, 62, a retiree surviving on $650 a month in disability payments, said the free food left more money for his medications.
Megan Brown, standing in line with her well-dressed daughters, Kayley, 2, and Sydney, 4, had come because she feared the worst. Her husband still had his job, she said, “but things are getting more and more tight.”
Team Rescue, of which Faith Lutheran is a member, considers itself successful, not just because it has helped more families but also because organizers believe that the links they are forming will be the foundation of a tighter community.
Ms. Nicely said she was especially encouraged by the Sheriff’s Department’s new “weed and seed” program, intended to revive Lehigh’s most troubled neighborhoods by involving residents in community policing and cleanup.
And home sales in Lee County are picking up, running roughly even with foreclosures.
“Six months ago, you might get one out of 20 houses with a multiple offer,” said Kevin Williamson, a real estate agent who has lived in Lehigh Acres for 22 years. “A couple of weeks ago, I had one with 13 offers.”
But no one here would describe Lehigh Acres as out of the woods. Real estate agents said the homes that are selling here typically go for only about $45,000, a third of what they cost to build. They predict that foreclosures will continue to keep prices low for two more years.
Job growth is also still nonexistent. Randy Burns, 50, the gregarious owner of Lehigh Discount Furniture, says he now receives 15 to 20 calls a week from people asking him to buy their furniture or help them move out of town — and he said he planned to leave, too.
“Until there’s jobs and foreclosures stop,” he said, “nothing’s going to change.”
The Latest Battle
Creating a community in a deepening recession, many here now say, feels harder than dealing with a Category 5 hurricane. Panic is a powerful headwind.
Voters defeated a proposal last year to incorporate Lehigh Acres, partly because residents feared higher taxes. And Team Rescue, for all its strength as a unified front, is still trying to figure out how to curb the spread of desperation.
Most recently the group has been struggling with a growing wave of families that either visit multiple food pantries using aliases or return the food to supermarkets for money or other items.
Ms. Nicely, at Lehigh Community Services, said that in November she started using a magic marker to blacken UPC symbols on cans so grocery stores would not accept them as returns.
“We even had to do that on the toys for Christmas,” Ms. Nicely said. Without such limits, she said, the neediest families might not be served. Still, she often feels torn, saying, “I can’t be sure I wouldn’t do the same thing if I was a single parent and my kids were hungry.” “The needs are so strong now,” she added, noting that there were more canned peas than peanut butter on her shelves because of growing demand. “They’ve never been this big before.”
A similar struggle between cohesion and chaos was also evident at a recent evangelical men’s meeting, where 8 of the 15 members said they had been laid off in the last year. Even as the group had helped some of the men cope, others said their families had been broken up by the stress.
And then there is Ms. Chilson. She lost her house partly because of the boom (if not for easy credit, she might not have refinanced her mortgage a few years ago), the bust (which led to her husband being laid off from his pest control job) and overspending (which led to more than $20,000 in credit card debt).
She and her husband had lived in their simple green ranch house for 18 years, and the night they were kicked out, they stayed across the street with an elderly man whom Ms. Chilson had often helped with his medication.
Ms. Chilson put her couch in an old friend’s house, her frozen steaks in another. And as she scrambled to find work and a place to rent, she decided to thank those she could.
At one point, she tried to vacuum a neighbor’s house as an act of appreciation.
But the vacuum stayed quiet. Ms. Chilson discovered that the electricity had been turned off because the bill had not been paid. Any day now, she said, her neighbor will be leaving Lehigh Acres with all the others.

Friday, September 08, 2006

"Hurriphobia" Pricks South Florida's Residential Real Estate Bubble

A confluence of forces guarantees that residential real estate values in South Florida will drop dramatically during the next few years. The downward pressure is mounting as the number of homes and condos for sale soars while the number of sales plummets.

Sellers are mystified by the fact that after several months of listing they have had no showings or any offers. Some desperate sellers have decided to ask for help from a higher power and have buried statues of St. Joseph on their property. Urban legend holds that burying this patron saint of real estate will guarantee a quick sale.

Numerous commentators deny that a South Florida real estate bubble is in the process of bursting and note that median sales prices remain virtually unchanged. At worst, these people believe that there will be a soft landing. Such optimistic prognostications are nothing more than wishful thinking and are generally espoused by those heavily reliant on high real estate prices.

In 2006 South Florida reached the point where the average person could not afford the average home. In fact, most people could not afford to buy the very homes they own, if they had to pay today’s asking price.

Florida real estate developers have generally been living in a “Field of Dreams” environment for the past 30 years, whereby if they built it then people would come to occupy whatever they built. This operating philosophy was made possible because Florida enjoyed significant in-migration and, in turn, those people needed dwellings.

Florida Land Crash - 1926

It was not always that easy for real estate developers. For example, in 1926 real estate speculation ended in what became widely known as the Florida Land Crash during which many fortunes were lost by builders and developers. In the mid-1970s there was a collapse in the condominium market caused by overbuilding and easy financing by REITs. Each of those episodes caused great financial losses and it took a number of years for the Florida real estate market to recover.

The Florida Land Crash of 1926 deserves special mention because it occurred at a time of general economic prosperity in the rest of the nation. Hurricanes played a major role in the crash and collapse of Florida real estate prices in the 1920s. The Miami Hurricane of September 1926 caused the loss of 415 lives, destroyed 13,000 homes and contributed significantly to the despair that was becoming embedded in the real estate sector. Historians suggest that the 1926 hurricane pricked the real estate bubble that was showing signs of deflating.

The initial decline in real estate prices was somewhat orderly from 1926 until the fall of 1928. In September 1928, however, the Okeechobee Hurricane struck the southeast coast of Florida and left an estimated 3,500 people dead. That hurricane ranks as the second worst natural disasters in the history of the Unites States and it served as the coup de grace for the South Florida real estate. Newpaper accounts of the 1928 hurricane featured headlines such as “Florida Destroyed! Florida Destroyed!”

That hurricane and the stock market crash a year later brought real estate activity to a halt throughout the nation. South Florida real estate prices did not fully recover until the arrival of military forces and training facilities that accompanied World War II.

It took years of advertising to create the mental image people had of Florida as a land of sunshine, orange blossoms, sandy beaches and gently swaying palms. Unfortunately, a force of nature in 1928 wiped out that image and replaced it with visions of raging water, gale force winds, death and destruction of property. Those deep-seated fears gradually eroded with the passage of time and effective promotion of South Florida. People’s vision of South Florida once again returned to balmy images with little or no thought of storms.

Deja Vu

The dormant fear of hurricanes was awakened in the September 2004 when South Florida was struck by Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Jeanne. That fear was elevated and became palpable in August and October 2005 when the area encountered Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma. In a 13 month span South Florida was struck by four destructive hurricanes with attendant loss of life and billions in property damage.

Television coverage of these storms as they struck Florida allowed all viewers to experience the destructive power of such storms. Importantly, viewers saw the human suffering and virtual destruction of New Orleans from the breach of its levee system brought on by Hurricane Katrina.

Hurriphobia and Other Causes

This fear of hurricanes is now so pervasive that it might be appropriate to officially give it a name such as hurriphobia. It should be added to all the other phobias that afflict people. Hurriphobia could then take its rightful place alongside agoraphobia, acrophobia and other phobias that describe unnatural fears which cause panic, flight and avoidance. Just as a person with acrophobia avoids flying and high places, the person with hurriphobia will naturally avoid places that experience hurricanes.

Numerous people who were once considering retiring to Florida have abandoned those plans because they have become victims of hurriphobia. They acquired this modern mental disorder from watching television coverage of hurricanes.

Hurriphobia is also observed among a growing percentage of South Florida residents who have weathered one or more of the six (6) hurricanes that have struck during the past three years. Hurriphobia among South Florida residents can be more severe because these people also frequently suffer from post-traumatic stress attributable to their experiences during recent hurricanes. Florida residents with this condition have an unnatural fear of death and see themselves in God’s Waiting Room (aka Florida) without a lot of other people.

The number of hurriphobiacs alone is enough to guarantee that the number of dwellings available for sale (listed and unlisted) will far exceed the number that will be sold for the foreseeable future. The strong desire by resident hurriphobiacs to leave Florida will cause prices to fall. Sales agents who prompted buyers to buy before prices rose will prompt sellers to sell before prices fall further.

The negative psychological impact of recent hurricanes represents only one of many negative forces bearing down on Florida residential real estate prices. Other factors that are causing growing problems are (1) layoffs within the construction and real estate sectors, (2) increases in the cost of property insurance, (3) increases in property taxes especially for non-homesteaded properties, (4) increases in interest rates, (5) lack of buyers able to qualify for mortgages, (6) continued completion of speculative units, (7) speculative buying by people (flippers) who own several dwellings, (8) increased cost of construction partially attributable to stringent building codes designed to protect inhabitants during hurricanes, and (9) continued financing of new construction by unwitting lenders.

Economic Fallout

The widespread fear and news coverage associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto at the end of August 2006, which failed to even gain hurricane strength, highlights the problems now facing the South Florida real estate industry. South Florida economic activity is heavily reliant on the health of residential real estate. Probably, half of all the businesses and workers in this area are dependent directly or indirectly on real estate for their income. Businesses that think they are immune to a bursting real estate bubble will undoubtedly fall victim to accounts receivable gridlock, whereby their receivables cannot be collected from other businesses, which, in turn, cannot collect their receivables.

Those who believe they will not be negatively impacted by this perfect real estate storm are mistaken. The wealthy with million dollar mansions and no mortgages will be able to withstand the drop in their net worth and may only be forced to forego some luxuries. Other people who have mortgages and whose net worths are tied up entirely in their homes may find their net worth totally evaporate and even go negative. Some people will be forced to sell in order to pay bills, while others will be foreclosed on by lenders.

The economic pain experienced by homeowners will be directly related to how close their purchase was to the peak in home prices. Those who bought at the peak and paid the highest price will experience the greatest problems since prices on those properties should decline by at least 30 per cent. It will likely take at least a decade for residential real estate prices to reach the heights reached before this bubble burst. Those “flippers” who think they can ride out the South Florida real estate storm by renting out their properties will discover their plan is doomed to failure as rental properties overwhelm demand.

As in all past real estate bubbles, prices will decline to the point where leading sellers of residential real estate will be mortgage lenders and taxing authorities. Distressed property sales will likely affect most areas and cause remaining property owners to question the merits of their continued mortgage indebtedness. Losses on real estate loans will undoubtedly lead to the failure of financial institutions with heavily concentrations.

The daily appearance of more “for sale” signs on lawns is a clear harbinger of collapsing residential real estate prices in South Florida. Those signs will not disappear for the forseeable future and will simply add to the number of dangerous flying projectiles that will accompany the next hurricane.